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It’s not your imagination: the snowpack is low

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POLSON — Snowpack is lower than average throughout western Montana. And, the Flathead basin received the least amount of snow, compared to average, of any region in western Montana. 

The upper Clark Fork basin, near Butte, has seen the highest percentage of average snowpack in western Montana, and the region is at 94 percent of average snowpack.

The Flathead basin received 89 percent of average snowpack by Jan. 11, according to Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribal hydrologist Casey Ryan.

“We expected a warm dry winter and that’s about what we’re getting,” Ryan said.

He said an early October snowstorm brought over six inches of snow to higher elevations in the region. On Nov. 1, there were seven inches of snow at the North Fork of the Jocko River. Four days later, on Nov. 5, there was over a foot of snow at that site. “It was a really quick start to the season,” Ryan said.

Typical El Niño weather occurred in November and December with mean temperatures four to six degrees above normal and precipitation below average. Ryan said even the significant late December snowstorms didn’t bring the area to average snowpack.

According to Ryan, it’s too soon to make conclusions about how much snowpack will accumulate over the rest of the winter. “Several of the Flathead Basin’s historically wetter months are still ahead of us,” he said. However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts warm dry conditions for the rest of the winter, which could mean below average snowpack for the winter as a whole.

This year’s weather is influenced by El Niño conditions, which generally result in lower than average precipitation and higher than average temperatures in the Mission Valley. According to LeeAnn Allegretto, meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s Missoula office, El Niño conditions are caused by thunderstorm activity in the Pacific Ocean. This is a “weak El Niño” year, Allegretto said. As a result, this year’s snowpack is higher than that of other El Niño winters. A typical El Niño winter yields only 75 to 80 percent of normal snowpack.

Last year marked the end of a La Niña phase, which typically brings cooler, wetter weather to the region, Ryan said. 

Last winter’s snowpack was 180 percent of average in the Flathead basin, which is significantly above average. 

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