Montana Climate Matters
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The Held family has ranched along the Powder River and in Carter County for four generations. They raise registered black Angus breeding stock through embryo transfer and 350 mother cows. About 400 acres are under pivots, 100 are on flood irrigation, 300 are under dryland, and the rest is uncultivated hills. Most of the irrigated ground is in alfalfa. They’ve also raised triticale, peas, oats, barley, corn, and clover.
Like other ranchers, the Helds are familiar with variable temperatures and precipitation that are up one year and down the next. However, they and other local ranchers are experiencing an increasing number of extreme climate and weather events – drought, excessive heat, hail storms, windstorms, flash floods, lack of snowpack, tornadoes, more intense wildfires and smoke – that have destroyed crops and caused economic and livestock losses.
“Although our neighbors don’t say ‘global warming’ or ‘climate change,’ everyone notices the number and frequency of wildfires, for example, are increasing,” says Steve Held. “It’s costing everyone.”
Data back up what the Helds have experienced. Broadus’ climate is getting warmer and wetter, with extreme rainfall events getting larger. It’s becoming harder to predict what the climate will bring each year.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather data document the changes. From 1940 to 2024, the highest (24.1”) and lowest (7.5”) annual precipitation for Broadus occurred in 2019 and 2020. The average precipitation for this period increased by 1.4” (i.e., from about 13.5” in 1940 to about 14.9” in 2024). Broadus experienced extreme storms with daily precipitation between 2.6” and 3.5” in 2002, 2013, and 2017.
Similarly, trends in average and maximum daily temperature from 1940-2024 show an increase of 3 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit (°F). For example, the average maximum daily temperature was 101°F in the 1940s and 104°F in the 2020s. Over the same period, the number of days per year when the temperature exceeded 90°F has doubled from about 26 to 54. In 2021, there were two 110°F and one 109°F days in Broadus. Another 109°F day was recorded in 2024.
Changes upstream also impact the Held’s operation. From 2000-2006 drought in northeastern Wyoming caused average stream flow in the Powder River to drop to half of the historic average for 1960-2024, according to US Geological Survey data. At their ranch, the river dried during parts of July and August during each of these years. For generations, the Helds relied on a stable climate in which snowstorms from December to March built enough snowpack to provide adequate surface water for summer irrigation. In 2007, they made the difficult decision to invest in expensive pivots to guarantee water through summer.
Wildfires have become a huge problem. Fire is a natural ranching hazard. But the intensity and frequency of these fires is unprecedented. In June and July of 2012, the Ash Creek fire west of the ranch burned 250,000 acres, including miles of power lines. Cattle, trapped by fire, fences, and hilly terrain, burned to death. With no power to run wells in the hills, cattle had to travel many miles between water and grass. Others died of thirst and starvation. In August 2024, the Remington Fire burned 200,000 acres. In September, the Short Draw fire burned another 40,000 acres and headed straight towards the ranch, burning down their neighbor’s ranch.
“We ranchers are used to variable weather. But we’re seeing harsher conditions now that force us to continually adjust our operations.”
“Bottom line? We need state and federal policies to address and stop global warming so we can keep making a living and pass the ranch along to the next generation,” they say.
Alexandra and Jim Amonette live in south central Montana and maintain their pasture land by grazing with sheep. Cathy Whitlock is Regents Professor Emerita of Earth Science at Montana State University and lead author of the 2017 Montana Climate Assessment.
